Surf and turf!

Following up on a recent post, word is out today via a story in the Los Angeles Times that Chrysler Corporation will soon have Internet capability as an option in its 2009 model cars. The article says:

"UConnect Web is an extension of the company's UConnect system, which provides Bluetooth connectivity for cellphones and MP3 player integration with the car stereo. Rival Ford provides similar services, but without Web access, in its popular Sync system. With the added Internet connectivity, drivers and passengers will be able to get such devices as laptop computers and Nintendo Wii consoles online. As to what users can download while in the car, Chrysler's Leung said anything was fair game. "There are no limitations in content," he said."

Aside from the obvious safety worries, what else does this mean for drivers and passengers? For in-car media usage? For dash-top or built-in GPS? Even for ham radio?

Many amateurs are already equipped to access their home stations remotely via Internet hookups (though some get pretty Rube-Goldberg-esque with their Skype audio links and more). Will this finally give us the ability to hop on 20 meters during the morning commute, using full legal power, a 90-foot tower, and full-sized monobander...all from the car?

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the coming ubiquity of the web.

Don N4KC
www.n4kc.com
www.donkeith.com

We Can't Even Handle Geologic-Speed Change

When we talk about how people react to change, we assume we are discussing--and on this blog our mission is supposed to be!--rapid technological change. But how can we expect them to accept a doubling of scientific knowledge every five years if they can't handle the concept of natural, long-term, climate cycles? Change that occurs over thousands of years?

You guessed it. I'm about to wade into global warming.

This was precipitated by (pun intended) a post on the excellent weather blog under the direction of James Spann. James is not only the Birmingham, Alabama, TV market's best-known and most highly-respected weathercaster, but he is also a long-time ham, WO4W. Though many fuss when he interrupts their favorite programs with continuous dangerous-weather coverage, he has saved many lives over the years by doing so. Seems like a reasonable trade-off to me!

James has caught quite a bit of heat lately for his common-sense comments about Al Gore's global warming campaign. A representative from the Weather Channel even proclaimed he should lose his certification from whatever high-level organization certifies weather forecasters...all because he maintains warming of the planet is nothing more than the natural cycle of things. On Earth, we are either in an ice age, warming up from one, or cooling down for the next one.

The post on his blog that I read this morning is mostly a replay of an article on another web site by John Coleman. John was, ironically, one of the founders and early stars of the Weather Channel. He makes some very intriguing points about the hysteria surrounding the supposed calamitous heating of our planet, all caused by the emissions from our beloved automobiles. Regardless of which side of the debate you are on, it is an interesting read.

Of course, I couldn't help but chime in so I posted some comments on Spann's blog. There are some things so obvious you would think they did not have to get their own bullet points, but I suppose not. So:

– You can sell far more books, movies and speaking engagements with a crisis than you ever could with naturally occuring phenomena. As always, follow the money!

– As mentioned by James and others, people have short memories. We tend to see things in our own limited little area of time and space. Weathercasters perpetuate things when they say, “The high today will be 90, and that’s ten degrees above average for this date.” “Average” is determined by taking the high temperatures for this day all the way back to when recordkeeping began, adding them together, and dividing by the number of days we are considering. Not only does that ignore millions of years of history, but it is a math exercise that smooths out a lot of temperature extremes!

– People want simple answers to complex problems. Just like they expect murders to be solved and wars to be won in sixty minutes–less commercials–they want to be able to solve any perceived crisis in a simplistic way. If we stop driving cars and using electricity, the polar bears will survive and New Yorkers won’t be paddling rowboats down Broadway.

Is every one of the folks on the other side of this issue only in it for the buck? No, I think most are sincerely worried about what they believe to be the truth. Are others in it for the notoriety or for the money? No doubt about it. Those are the scoundrels who should be ashamed of themselves.

The rest of us, though, should step back and broaden our perspective. This whole thing would be comical if it didn’t also mean the ensuing hysteria may have far more negative impact on society than the “crisis” we are supposed to be hysterical about.

How are we going to handle REAL change if we can't understand something as slow as climate evolution?

Don N4KC

Follow the $$$$$

We have seen the birth of a totally new medium in our lifetime. Now it is fascinating to many of us to watch it grow, morph, and evolve into something much more powerful than we could have ever imagined. A little over a decade ago, I'd say 90% of us had little idea of what the Internet was, let alone what its potential would be. I remember thinking, "How are they going to make money on this thing?" See, it has to make money or it won't be a factor, right?

(That was especially true of Google. There were no ads on the main page! No banners! How were these goofy nerds planning on making money with this thing? Shows what a visionary I was!)

Now, it appears the Internet is poised to become the second largest advertising medium (read: "money maker") of them all, second only to that vast, all-encompassing category called "direct marketing." A recent article in MediaPost, an ad industry trade mag, says:

"According to a recently released study by IDC, the U.S. Internet Advertising 2008-2012 Forecast and Analysis, overall Internet advertising revenue will double from $25.5 billion in 2007 to $51.1 billion in 2012. During the forecast period, Internet advertising will grow about eight times as fast as advertising at large. The Internet will go from the number 5 medium all the way to the number 2 medium in just 5 years, says the report, making it bigger than newspapers, bigger than cable TV, bigger even than broadcast TV, and second only to direct marketing.

"Video advertising will be the principal disruptor of Internet advertising during this time, as its revenue grows sevenfold from $0.5 billion in 2007 to $3.8 billion in 2012 at a compound annual growth rate of 49.4%. Brand advertisers will shift significant amounts of money into video commercials, primarily from broadcast television and to a lesser extent from cable television.
Karsten Weide, program director, Digital Media and Entertainment, says 'What will (help) drive this trend is that consumers are starting to realize that, as opposed to TV, Internet video lets them watch what they want, when they want, and increasingly, where they want.'"

One point I think the article misses is that a considerable amount of that "video advertising" will be delivered by -- you guessed it -- the Internet. And that along with some other signs I see lead me to believe this estimate of Internet ad growth is very, very conservative...as spectacular as it is already!

Not bad for a 12-year old!

Don Keith N4KC

http://www.n4kc.com/

http://www.donkeith.com/

Pardon the Tardiness

As expected, it is sometimes difficult to find time to post updates to this blog. Things are happening! I've been traveling with the day job -- trips to Phoenix and San Diego, on which I did not bother to carry a radio since I knew I would have little time to use it -- and lots of meetings to begin the planning process for 2009. We really have a concentrated planning program now, not our former practice of waiting until Q4 to cobble together some numbers for Q1 of the coming year, then finishing the rest in the nick of time before the quarter started.

I operated the Alabama QSO Party this weekend for a few hours and had 67 contacts on 20 and 40. I didn't hear a lot of activity but hope there was more going on than what I could detect. I also worked several of the historical naval vessels that were on the air, mostly on Saturday. It is always a thrill to talk with the USS Batfish, which is located high and dry in Muskogee, Oklahoma, in the middle of the Cherokee Nation. That submarine was the subject of my book IN THE COURSE OF DUTY, and hers is a fascinating story -- three enemy submarines sunk in three days, as well as the remarkable tale of how she came to rest where she does today, in the former Dust Bowl, of all places. At any rate, thanks to Charlie and the guys who put WW2SUB on the air whenever they can (also one of my favorite callsigns!).

Finally, I completed the last of the corrections and changes to the manuscript for THE ICE DIARIES, the book about USS Nautilus and her voyage across the top of the world, through the North Pole, in 1958. It went to the printer Monday, June 2, and should be out in mid-July. The special event station -- N9N -- to commemorate that historic transit is still looking good to go the weekend of August 2 and 3. Chuck Motes, K1NAL, and the Navy MARS group are doing a wonderful job with all the footwork. And he sent me notice yesterday that the governor of Connecticut, Governor Rell, has declared August 3 as USS Nautilus North Pole Crossing Day in the state. The more recognition my co-author, the late Captain William Anderson and his brave crew, can get, the better.

I'll update with more as I can. Now I probably have a meeting or something...

73,

Don N4KC

The world -- in your dash!

I have speculated here and in other forums about what a major sea change will happen when wifi internet access is as ubiquitous as cell phone signals or--dare I say it--broadcast radio. Well, it is here, now--at least in a few lucky spots--and it seems to be working moderately well.

Read this article and tell me it is not inevitable that each of us one day has a browser in the dash. God help us if people actually try to surf the web while negoatiating expressway traffic! But think of the ability to listen to radio streams from around the world, as the fellow in this article did, or dialing up MapQuest for driving instructions on the fly (assuming the GPS is not soon as common as the turn signal lever). I think you will see browsers with knobs and dials like radios, or pushbuttons that take you directly to bookmarked streams.

Hey, how about rig control from your car, even if you and your vehicle are in San Francisco and your radio--hooked to the 4-element SteppIR and a 1.5KW amp--is back in Birmingham. Kind of gives "mobile" a whole new meaning, right?

Hang on! This is going to be fun!

Don Keith N4KC

Are the Arabs and eBay Killing Hamfests?

Interesting discussion threads are now active on a couple of amateur radio web sites about the fate of our hobby’s staple meeting event, the hamfest. In the past, these gatherings primarily featured flea markets (“boneyards”) and in-person contact between guys that typically only communicated with each over the air. Larger gatherings included booths manned by manufacturers and distributors and a number of forums, common-interest group meetings, and the like.

I suppose the discussion about how hamfests are faring is being kindled by the world’s largest—in Dayton, Ohio, this week—and how the gas prices and other changes in the hobby will affect attendance there. The general feeling is that eBay along with the ability to buy and sell equipment on the Internet has crippled the traditional ham gatherings. Stratospheric gas prices and other travel expenses are contributing to their demise. Many are struggling. I don’t dispute that times have changed, that some long-running hamfests are either gone already or fading fast, but I also see some events that are still thriving.

My observation—from a very narrow perspective, I grant you—is that small swap meets, pulling from a closer region, and offering lots of socialization and a decent boneyard, will continue to prosper. One reason is that a single bad year, due to weather or energy prices or some other unforeseen factor, doesn't put them out of business. Their investment is small so their risk is, too.

I remember back in the 1970s when the Birmingham Amateur Radio Club had designs on becoming the premier hamfest in the rapidly growing Southeast U.S. But we also realized that with the high rent and overhead for a suitable venue, the dependence on a few major manufacturers and suppliers to show up and support the event, and the other considerable expenses necessary to market such a major gathering, we risked bankrupting the club if something outside our control happened. A spike in fuel costs, a bad weekend of weather, somebody else in some other part of the country deciding to usurp “our” weekend—any of those things could put us out of business. Or a bunch of amateurs—“amateurs” in both radio and convention marketing—might simply not be savvy enough to break even, much less turn a profit.

The type of gatherings I'm thinking of that seem to do well, even with gas approaching $4 a gallon, is like the one at Dalton, Georgia. This is a prime example of a successful, flea-market-driven gathering. Oh, I believe we will continue to have several "national" events—Dayton, Orlando, Dallas, Visalia, and, yes, Huntsville, AL—keyed more to time of year so as not to conflict with each other and within short driving distances of a lot of people. There manufacturers will exhibit, key personnel from major vendors will be present, and important, personality-driven forums will be held. There will be less opportunity to socialize and flea markets will not be the primary draw (though both will continue to be factors). Discount dealers will offer bargain "show specials," distributors of parts and accessories will thrive because attendees can shop for all those odds and ends in one place, manufacturers will debut new gear and support loyal customers and early adopters, and we will all have the opportunity to learn from experts and take in top-line presentations by the "stars" in our hobby.

Certainly the economy and energy prices (as well as the Internet) affect many kinds of events. We see it in trade shows now. Thomas Nelson, a major publishing house (my publisher on the latest book, THE ICE DIARIES), pulled out of the industry's two biggest trade shows this year. Now they bring their key accounts to a big shindig at their place where they can control how they wow them and have their undivided attention…and save money in the process. For them, it is just a better way to do business. The annual radio broadcasters' show now has more exhibitors than attendees and could be on its last legs. Vendors are better off paying for customers to fly to their factory for some kind of roll-out party, knowing they don’t have to compete with the guy across the aisle or the casinos down the street for the customers’ attention. And again, it is much more cost effective than putting scores of employees in airplanes and hotels for a week and shipping tons of equipment to a convention somewhere.

Call it Darwinism, but I believe the shows or events that adapt, that offer what people want, will survive. But those that try to operate and rely on the same draws as they did in 1965, or who make assumptions about what will compel someone to come to their event, will likely go the way of the dinosaur.

That certainly seems to apply to hamfests.

Don Keith N4KC

Does your puppy have an IP address?

It's only a matter of time before each of us, along with our pets, our cars, all our worldly possessions, have our own IP (Internet protocol) address. That means we will be able to be even more exact in addressing people, critters, and things via the Internet, issuing commands, monitoring status, controlling stuff no matter where we are.

Example: you get up in the morning when the alarm clock rings--at a time you pre-set it to do so the night before from your laptop. The wife sleeps on beneath her electric blanket, set for her comfort by the microprocessor in the bed control, just as was your side of the blanket and the hardness of the mattress. You smell coffee perking and the toaster pops up a nice, perfectly-toasted bagel while you shower in water that is exactly the right temperature, just the way you set them to do in the software suite on your office machine. A traffic report for the route to work is available and waiting on your PDA, constantly being updated, as well as the weather for your little corner of the world, and the pre-opening prices on your stocks. But you don't watch them on the tiny little PDA screen. You have relayed them to your 52-inch TV to view while you eat breakfast -- in one window. The other two show ESPN's "Sports Center" and trailers for the new movies due to be in local theaters this weekend, streamed to your TV from a distant website.

Still thirsty when you get to the office, you touch the vending machine in the break room with your PDA and it drops a bottle of vitamin water into the slot for you and charges $1.50 to your phone bill. During the day, you send your browser on your desktop to Fido's IP address to make sure he's okay, has water in his bowl, and is leaving the cat be. You also check on the temperature in the house, answer a call from a telemarketer on your home phone (then hit one key to blacklist that guy's IP), and accept delivery of a new VHF radio the UPS guy brought to your front porch.

(Of course, when the boss is not watching, you fire up the rig in the shack at home from your desk, rotate the beam to the heading you saw on the DX spot on your wrist watch readout, and work a DXpedition while propagation was right.)

If it's a cold day, you start your car out in the deck about ten minutes before quitting time so it will be nice and toasty when you get there. Of course, the vehicle has its own IP that you can address, including choosing the exact temperature in the car and the station that will be selected on the radio when you climb in. Of course, that station could be a stream from Europe featuring blues music or a bluegrass station from California. You could even program the exact songs you wanted to hear, in order. Or you may have the mobile rig already tuned to the roundtable frequency and the screwdiver antenna properly adjusted for you when you get there, just in case you want to talk with the guys on the way home.

The wife sends a text message to the readout on the car's dash letting you know she ordered up some groceries--including two piping hot deli meals--from the grocery store and they'll be waiting at the pickup window...but only once the store's computer senses that you are five minutes away. The meals will be hot and the ice cream won't melt.

Sound far-fetched, futuristic? Most of what I just described is possible today. Is the time coming when everything around us has full Internet addressability? Will we be issued a Social Security number and an IP address when we are born? Is all this good or bad or indifferent? Is that Fido on the dashboard readout, reminding me to pick up his tasty treats?

Don Keith N4KC